A Preliminary Assessment of the Potential for System-friendly K-12 Reform

Empirical studies of various K-12 performance measures speak to the potential for improving the performance of the present system. They can address the following question. Given the fixed factors – the basic funding and governance processes that all fifty states share – what are the plausible maximum predicted values of the academic performance measures? For each of several econometric models, this review computes two predicted academic outcomes with highly favorable explanatory variable values. It addresses the following question: if highly favorable independent variable values (school inputs, socioeconomic factors) had been the average values, how good would the average academic outcome be? It also addresses a second version of that question: leaving the control variables at their mean values, what is the predicted level of academic performance with just highly favorable values for the policysensitive variables. The general finding from this review of econometric studies of K-12 academic outcomes is that the current K-12 system combined with highly favorable policies and socioeconomic conditions would still only produce mediocre results. The conclusion discusses the findings in the context of the K-12 reform debate. Paper Presented at the 2006 Western Economics Association Annual Conference San Diego, California * Professor of Economics, University of Texas – San Antonio (78207), Senior Research Associate, Fraser Institute, and author of Global Lessons (2005), and The School Choice Wars (2001). Office: 210-458-2519. FAX: 210-458-2515. E-mail: [email protected]; Web: faculty.business.utsa.edu/jmerrifi/ JEL: I21